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ZEF Discussion Papers on Devlopment Policy 7
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Bog'liq zef dp07ZEF Discussion Papers on Devlopment Policy 7
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To examine this possibility, Röller and Waverman (1996) estimate an additional
specification that allows for non-linear effects of telecom density. This specification indicates
that, a 10 percent increase in the penetration rate leads to a 2.8 percent increase in GDP and,
more interestingly, that a minimum threshold of telecom density (around 24 percent) must be
achieved in order to generate growth.
While the robustness and generality of this threshold effect may be questioned, it does
suggest that enhancements in telecommunications infrastructure may generate higher growth
effects in developed countries (i.e., countries that have achieved the critical threshold) than in
developing countries. In addition, given the low telecom density in developing countries (the
1995 average was around 4 percent, i.e., 4 main telephone lines per 100 people; see UNDP,
1998), it appears that marginal improvements in telecom infrastructure may not generate the
desired required growth effects. Thus, developing countries may require substantial investments
in ICT infrastructure before they can benefit from the growth-generating effects of these
technologies.
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While Röller and Waverman (1996) account for some of the econometric problems noted
earlier, their results are probably influenced by the non-stationary nature of the data. Within the
context of the infrastructure-growth debate, Canning (1998) conducts tests to show that log GDP
per capita and log tele-density are non-stationary. Thus, regressing the level of GDP on the
level of telephone availability will result in regression coefficients that are too small in relation
to their standard errors and will lead to incorrect inferences (see Murray, 1994). To guard
against such spurious regressions, Granger and Newbold (1974) recommend that regressions
among non-stationary variables be conducted as regressions among changes in these variables.
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