A.V. Glotko, I.N. Sycheva, A.N. Dunets, A.L. Poltarykhin, P.V. Zhuravlev, A.A. Tubalets
9
Enterprises of the poultry, vegetable and fruit growing
industries have high
integration capabilities (Romasheva
et al., 2018). The maral breeding industry has
the greatest potential for creating intra-integration structures
in the Altai Republic
(Poltarykhin and Tarasova, 2014).
It was also revealed that from the standpoint of the development of interregional
agro-industrial
relations, the cooperation of the Altai Republic with the Altai
Territory is most promising. We have concluded that the creation of an extracluster
is most appropriate in the dairy and beef cattle industries, since these industries are
characterized by the largest contribution to the gross product. In order to determine
the economic result of the introduction of intra- and extra-integrated
structures in the
agro-industrial complex of the region (Peshkova
et al., 2017), we have developed an
appropriate forecasting technique for predicting the development of the agro-
industrial complex of the region based on the intra and extra-integration
structures
from of the scenario approach (Cherepovitsyn and Ilinova, 2018).
The first stage involves an assessment of the parameters of the ‘business-as-usual’
scenario of the development of the agro-industrial sector using the Microsoft Office
Excel software package. The forecast indicators of the industries of maral breeding
and cattle breeding in the Altai Republic for 2018-2025 were produced with the help
of a linear prediction function:
,
where
,
.
It was identified that as a result of the ‘business-as-usual’
development of the
branches, the number of marals in the Altai Republic will have increased by 7.2% by
2025, and the number of cattle by 18.4% compared with the current level.
To compile a target scenario for the development of livestock industries in the Altai
Republic involving the development of intra- and extra-integration structures (stage
2 of the proposed methodology), the effect of cost reduction in product cost as part
of the expansion of operations of integrated structures was calculated (Table 4).
