Table 5. Target intra-cluster development scenario in the Altai Republic  Indicators

A.V. Glotko, I.N. Sycheva, A.N. Dunets, A.L. Poltarykhin, P.V. Zhuravlev, A.A. Tubalets 
11 
Table 6. Target extra-cluster development scenario for the Altai Republic
Target prediction 
2018 
2019 
2020 
2021 
2022 
2023 
2024 
2025 
Cattle population 
269,6 
273,9 
357,4 
367,2 
376,9 
386,7 
396,5 
406,3 
Gross meat 
production, thousand 
tonnes* 
33,5 
34,4 
44,6 
45,9 
47,1 
48,3 
49,5 
50,7 
Gross milk 
production, thousand 
tonnes 
86,9 
85,9 
112,4 
111,1 
109,8 
108,4 
107,1 
119,4 
Returns from industry 
sales, mn. rub. 
328,0 
356,1 
464,6 
477,3 
546,6 
560,8 
574,9 
589,1 
Cost of production, 
mn. rub. 
222,9 
241,9 
245,7 
249,5 
282,5 
286,8 
291,0 
295,3 
Deductions in the 
budget of the 
Republic, mn. rub. 
16,7 
17,1 
27,8 
28,6 
32,7 
33,6 
34,4 
35,3 
Net profit from cattle 
production sales, mn. 
rub. 
26,3 
28,5 
54,1 
54,9 
58,2 
61,1 
62,2 
65,0 
4. Results
 
To assess the planned effect of the development of integration units in the agro-
industrial complex of the Altai Republic, we will perform a comparative analysis of 
the scenarios for the development of clusters provided in the third stage of the 
methodology in this study (Table 7). 
Table 7. Comparative analysis of the ‘business-as-usual’ and target scenarios for 
the development of branches of the agro-industrial complex of the Altai Republic 
Indicators 
Business-as-
usual scenario 
Target scenario 
Deviation 
of target 
from 
business-
as-usual 
scenario, 
2025, % 
2025 
by 
2015, 
% 
2025 
2025 
by 
2015, 
% 
Intra-cluster 
Maral deer population, thousand 
heads 
57,7 
107,2% 
67,9 
126,2% 
117,7% 
Gross output of raw antlers, tonnes 
69,2 
78,8% 
92,3 
105,1% 
133,4% 
Production of preserved antlers, 
tonnes 
62,2 
136,7% 
80,9 
177,7% 
130,1% 
Returns from maral deer 
production sales, mn. rub. 
1057 
251,5% 
1369,8 
325,8% 
129,6% 
Production cost, mn rub. 
602,8 
248,9% 
453,9 
189,4% 
74,0% 
Deductions into the budget of the 
Republic, mn. rub. 
172,4 
227,7% 
246,6 
325,8% 
105,7% 

Development of Integration Processes in the Agro-Industrial Complex of the Russian Regions 
 
12 
Net profit from maral deer 
production sales, mn. rub. 
233,3 
241,2% 
401,9 
415,0% 
172,1% 
Extra-cluster 
Cattle population 
299,6 
118,4% 
406,3 
160,4% 
135,6% 
Gross meat production, thousand 
tonnes* 
40,3 
130,9% 
50,7 
164,9% 
125,8% 
Gross milk production, thousand 
tonnes 
79,8 
89,1% 
119,4 
133,1% 
149,6% 
Returns from industry sales, mn. 
rub. 
434,5 
185,9% 
589,1 
252,0% 
135,6% 
Cost of production, mn. rub. 
369,4 
185,7% 
295,3 
148,6% 
79,9% 
Deductions into the budget of the 
Republic, mn. rub. 
21,9 
184,0% 
35,3 
296,5% 
161,2% 
Net profit from cattle production 
sales, mn. rub. 
32,8 
175,1% 
65,0 
347,6% 
198,2% 
The target development scenario is the most preferable for the branches of maral 
breeding and cattle breeding. As a result of the development of an intra-cluster, 
deductions to the budget of the Altai Republic in 2025 will exceed the amount of 
deductions in 2015 by 225%, maral deer livestock will increase by 26.2% by 2025, 
and profit growth will be 315%. The formation of an extra-cluster by 2025 also 
implies the growth of all base indicators of the industry: cattle livestock by 60.4%, 
profits by 247.6%, and deductions to the regional budget by 196%. Thus, the 
measures proposed within the framework of the development of the agro-industrial 
complex of the Altai Republic are effective, because they lead to the implementation 
of a more attractive scenario from the economic point of view. 
5. Conclusions 
 
1. It is revealed that in current economic conditions the agro-industrial cluster is the 
most promising form of integration structure contributing to the sustainable 
development of the national agro-industrial complex. The advantage of the cluster 
form of integration is its innovative nature in providing for the systemic synergistic 
interaction of economic entities, as well as government bodies, and scientific and 
educational institutions. 
2. A methodology has been developed for assessing extra- and intra-integration 
structures consisting of three levels of assessment of the economy of the agro-
industrial sector: the regional level, the economic sector level, and the enterprise 
level. To assess the industry (level 2) from the point of view of prospects for 
development of integration, a methodology has been developed based on the 
compilation of the integration decision-making matrix. The matrix describes the 
integration opportunities in the agro-industrial sector of the region in terms of 
growth and production efficiency. The matrix is based on a system of indicators: the 
coefficient of localization of the industry, and the potential for growth in production 
in the industry of the region, defined as the sum of the resource, investment, 

A.V. Glotko, I.N. Sycheva, A.N. Dunets, A.L. Poltarykhin, P.V. Zhuravlev, A.A. Tubalets 
13 
marketing, and personnel potential of the agricultural sector. The third level of 
enterprise evaluation is supplemented by a calculation of the synergistic effect of 
integration based on the effect of scaling. The proprietary methodology was tested 
on the materials of the Altai Republic. 
3. As a result of testing the three-level assessment of the prospects for agro-
industrial integration, it has been determined that the livestock industry has the 
maximum potential for creating large integrated structures in the Altai Republic. The 
need for creating cluster structures as a form of integration units in the livestock 
industries of the Altai Republic has been substantiated. 
4. The study offers ‘business-as-usual’ and target scenarios for the development of 
the agro-industrial complex of the Altai Republic until 2025. The effectiveness of 
the proposed measures is reflected in the target scenario for the development of the 
agro-industrial complex of the Republic, according to which the formation of intra-
clusters and extra-clusters in 2025 will lead to an increase in total profits of 
enterprises in the livestock industries under analysis by 451 million rubles and 
budget allocations by 194.3 million rubles. 

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