| The information on risk factors
There are no risks connected with possibility of the expiration of validity of the patents and licenses for use of trade marks.
4.5. Analysis of tendencies of development in the sphere of primary activity of the issuer
The following indicators of economy development were forecasted in the concept of the long-term social and economic development of the Russian Federation worked out by Ministry of Economic Development in 2007:
GDP dynamics at different scenarios of economy development (according to the data of 2009) (average annual gain rates, percentage points):
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2010-2012
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2013-2015
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2016-2020
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GDP growth rate (conservative forecast)
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2,9
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3,5
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3,1
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GDP growth rate (moderate – optimistic forecast)
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4,2
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6,3
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6,9
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The world financial and economic crisis which came into active stage at the end of 2008 introduced its adjustments to the country economy development. The main macroeconomic indicators reduced in 2009. Thus, GDP fall by 8,5%, industrial production – by 10,8%, inflation level was 8,8%.
In experts’ of Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation opinion, in 2010 the country economy will be able to avoid stagnation and come to the growth (about 3-4%) which will depend on not only the world conjuncture improvement, but increase of efficiency and competitiveness of the Russian economy, its innovativeness, recovery of confidence between economic entities.
Taking into account the stated factors, Ministry of Economic Development is planning to achieve the average annual GDP growth rate equal to 6,5% by 2020.
In 2009 the Russian power industry faced two main problems. Firstly, the crises resulted in the significant reduction of electric power consumption - 4,6%. Secondly, in 2009 investment in the industry reduced. The abovementioned extensive plans on expanding capacities will be postponed by a year or even by two years.
The principal parameter for construction of the industry development model is power consumption dynamics. Forecasts of power consumption rate changes expressed by different experts do not give rise to optimism. Ministry of Energy forecasts in 2010 power consumption increase at 2-3% level, and according to estimate of non-commercial partnership “Market council” the increase will be at most 0,5%. In the long term power consumption growth rates will be lower than 3%, because our economy has serious potential to reduce specific power consumption. Analysts consider 1-2% growth rates in the long term to be more real.
As a whole, estimate of the market prospects of the Russian electric power companies depend completely on the country economy development and re-investment opportunities which are the determining factors both for fundamental estimate of value of companies and capital inflow in the industry.
Now the issuer carries out its activity in two main directions: transmission of electric energy and technological connection to electric grids. Thus technological connection to electric grids defines development of the company, growth of volumes of transmission of electric energy, expansion of geographical covering of territories with electric grids, and increase in capitalization. Tendecy of development of the given kind of activity is defined by development of regions of the zone of activity of the issuer: development of the industry, agriculture, household sector, construction of habitation, etc, it allows estimate them as favorable as a whole even under conditions of the current economic crisis.
For creation of favorable conditions of development of regions, the issuer actively cooperates with local enforcement authorities and large consumers in the sphere of planning. The result of this work is steady demand for electric capacity, which is the ground for formation of the issuer’s investment program.
Considerable development trend in the field of the issuer’s activity is possibility of the issuer’s business diversification in the part of structure of rendered services. Recent adoption of the law on power efficiency from the one part will reduce power consumption within the scale of economy, but from the other part it will create opportunity for services in the field of increase of power efficiency of electric power consumers. At present the issuer works out the concept of access to the market of rendering services in the field of power efficiency.
The above-stated information is given according to the opinions expressed by the issuer's governance bodies.
Opinions of the issuer's governance bodies concerning the presented information coincide. There is no a special opinion of members of the issuer's Board of Directors concerning the presented information.
4.5.1. Analysis of factors and conditions influencing the issuer's activity
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