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or rare species include the markhor, Central Asia cobra, Aral salmon, slender-
billed curlew, and Asiatic wild dog. The Jeseter hladky has become extinct.
Uzbekistan was placed 25th out of 164 in the world’s most water-stressed
countries ranking published by the World Resources Institute. The water shortage
is a very pressing issue for Uzbekistan, given that the scarcity in certain regions,
especially Karakalpakstan, might cause a social and environmental crisis. The
water is scarce not only for agricultural purposes but also for domestic use. Hence,
it is reasonable for us to raise the following questions. How does water shortage
affect Uzbekistan’s economic and political life? How effective are the measures
undertaken by the government and international organizations?
Water scarcity and the Aral Sea.
Uzbekistan’s hydropower resources make up only 4.92% of
the entire country
territory; the total water resources amount to 50-60 km 3 per year, of which only
12.2 km 3 is formed inside the republic, whereas the rest of the water comes from
elsewhere – from the Tien Shan and Pamir-Altai mountains, from snowmelt and
glaciers melting in summer. Most of the water resources go to irrigate cotton
fields.By 2030, the population of the republic is forecast to increase to almost 40
million people, causing a reduction in available water resources by 7-8 km3. In
such circumstances, the current water shortage will surge by 2030 from 13-14% to
44–46%, impairing the development of both agriculture and industries. According
to the World Bank, freshwater losses in Uzbekistan in 2018 amounted to 469
million cubic meters or 32% of the total volume of drinking water
produced. Large-scale water losses come amidst unfavorable forecasts for the
future
water supply in Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan. According to World
Bank forecasts, by 2050, streamflow decline might amount to 2-5% in the Syr
Darya river basin, and 10-15% in the Amu Darya river basin, thus resulting in an
increased water shortage. In jeopardy is not only agriculture but hydropower as
well since the productivity of hydropower plants by 2050 in parts of the region
may decline to 20%.
The problem of the Aral Sea concerns not only Uzbekistan
but also neighboring countries. 135-145 million tons of salt are dumped into the
Amu Darya and the Syr Darya annually, making it about 17-20 tons for 1 ha of
irrigated land per year. If by 1960 the average annual river
flow into the Aral
Sea was about 55 km 3 or 45-50%, then by 1990 the inflow had decreased to 6-12
km3 was approaching zero in dry years. Currently, sea level is declining at a rate of
about 0.5 m per year, reaching 37.0 m; the sea surface area has been reduced to
32,000 km2; salinity increased to 40 or more g / l and is still growing.
The problem
of the Aral Sea took a political aspect in the late 1980s: with the efforts of the
Central Asian leadership, there was an International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea
(IFAS) established, currently the only interstate coordinating mechanism in Central
Asia. Experience had shown that only the joint efforts of all Central Asian states
can prevent the further drying of the Aral Sea. However, the cooperation does not
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go beyond signing general declarations and memoranda.
There were many
initiatives in the 1990s, but all remained on paper. For example, on March 26,
1993, the regional leaders signed an agreement in the
town of Kyzyl-Orda on
collectively addressing the problem of the Aral Sea and the Aral Sea
region. Paragraph 3 of article 1 read: guaranteed water supply to the Aral Sea in
volumes necessary to maintain a reduced but stable water area at an
environmentally acceptable level and thus preserve the sea as a natural
site. Contributing factors in the failure to address the Aral Sea issue is its location
mainly on the territory of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as an “inland sea” of these
republics. The remaining Central Asian states are concerned with the development
of their hydropower and extensive agriculture. In October 2019, Uzbekistan invited
the world community to declare the Aral Sea a zone of environmental innovations
and technologies. This matter to be considered at the
UN General Assembly in
September 2020. Kazakhstan seeks to preserve biodiversity and the lake in the
north of the Aral Sea. Over the past 30 years, international organizations have
written numerous policy briefs and proposals of a review and recommendatory
nature. UNDP programs on environmental issues in the Aral Sea region are also
under implementation. The fundamental solution to the Aral Sea problem lays in
creating a legal framework for determining the status of the former Aral Sea in
Central Asia, i.e. when the Aral becomes a subject for international relations. This
can be done with the Central Asian states signing an international treaty brokered
by the EU, the USA and the Russian Federation. We must remember that this is
possible only if the Central Asian republics cooperate closely in tackling the
energy and environmental issues in the region.
Demand for water resources is increasing in Central Asian countries during the
summer months due to the increase
in agricultural production, demographic
growth, and increased evaporation due to the increase in average temperature.
In turn, due to climate change and irrational use of water resources, the melting
of glaciers, which are the main sources of water in the region, has accelerated.
Central Asian countries, where water scarcity is acute and likely to rise to the level
of life and death in the near future, should coordinate and revise their
strategies in
order to preserve the common ecosystem and reduce possible economic losses.
