Reserves of future expenses and valuation reserves




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2.5.2. Country and regional risks

Country risks

Before the middle of 2008 the positive tendency of increase of the international ratings of the Russian Federation is observed. According to the classification of Fitch, Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s international rating agencies, Russia received an investment rating according to which the economic and political situation in Russia is estimated as harmless in the short-term prospect. At the end of 2008, under conditions of the continuing world economic crisis sovereign rating has decreased and remains at the level «BBB» (Fitch, Standard & Poor’s) and «Baa1» (Moody's). Nevertheless, recently the positive tendencies can be observed – so, for instant, in December 2009 “Standard & Poor’s” reconsidered the level of forecast from “negative” to “stable” one. Upon final crisis end the favorable factors contributing to increase in the ratings of Russia must play their role, in opinion of agencies, are the economic growth observed in Russia within last several years, caused improvement of the majority of key performance indicators, including proficiency of the account of current operations, and also growth of gold and exchange currency reserves of Russia and reduction of external short-term obligations.

On the other hand, financial problems or aggravated perception of risks of investment in the countries with a developing economy can lower the volume of foreign investments into Russia and render negative influence on the Russian economy. Besides, as Russia makes and exports great volumes of natural gas and oil, the Russian economy is especially vulnerable to changes of the world prices for natural gas and oil, and falling of the price for natural gas and oil can slow down or shake development of the Russian economy. Besides, dynamics of growth of prices for consumer products in the country remains to be the problem. These events can limit access of the issuer to the capital and render adverse influence on purchasing capacity of consumers of the issuer’s products. Also at present the Government of the Russian Federation commenced to implement policy of containment of growth of tariffs for products and services of natural monopolies within the frameworks of anti-crisis program for 2009, this can result in shortage of financing of the issuer’s investment program.

Probability of these risks is estimated as high with consequences for the issuer’s activity varying from average to severe.

Within the frameworks of minimization of the foregoing risks the issuer performs work on reduction of internal costs and optimization of the investment program as well as implements factored policy in the field of attraction of borrowed funds.

The main political risks of the issuer’s activity (in terms of the country risks) are: probability of change of the current policy of the Government of the country. In case of above said events, the following consequences of the issuer’s activity are forecasted: establishing a level of tariff lower than the economically grounded level, nationalization of the issuer’s assets, radical change of the current model of management of distribution grids with possible decentralization / liquidation of IDGC.

At present probability of these risks is estimated as minimal with consequences for the issuer’s activity from average to severe.

Political risks are beyond the control of the issuer because of their scale, but within the frameworks of their minimization the issuer leads active work with superior and regulating organizations in common interests of the industry development.




Regional risks

The issuer was registered as a tax bearer on the territory of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation being an economically developed region of the country, the center of financial and political activity.

According to the Investment Rating of Regions of Russia 2007-2008 (prepared by the "Expert RA" Rating Agency), the majority of regions (9 out of 11), with which the issuer’s activity is connected, are referred to the territories with moderate investment risks and in various investment potential, one of the regions (Lipetsk region) – to the regions with the minimal investment risks, and one of the regions (Tver region) – to the regions with high investment risks.

Regional risks in activity of the issuer amount to ignoring by the authorized state tariff establishment bodies of the part of economically proved charges declared by the issuer for inclusion in the corresponding tariff. Besides, under conditions of the economic crisis reduction of electric power consumption by large industrial enterprises of regions is possible. The given circumstance can have essential influence on realization of the scale investment program of the issuer, and their probability is high under conditions of the crisis. In order to decrease influence of regional risks on realization of the investment program, the issuer on a constant basis cooperates with the state bodies and other stakeholders (stakeholder relations) for the purpose of the control over and management of the choice of stakeholders concerning their actions in connection with investment projects of the issuer. The issuer performs as well measures on optimization of the investment program financing for the account of reduction of internal costs.

The main political risk of the issuer’s activity at the regional level is possible change of the government of regions with subsequent change of the existing model of relations with the issuer. The principle consequences for the issuer’s activity under these risks are: establishing a level of regional tariff lower than the economically grounded level, absence of support on the part of regional authorities for integration of municipal electric grid assets by the issuer.

At present probability of these risks is estimated as minimal with consequences for the issuer’s activity from insignificant up to medium.

Within the frameworks of minimizing of these risks the issuer conducts constant work on compliance of the long-term programs of development of regions, zones of activity of the issuer’s branches with regional and local authorities as well as interacts actively with superior organizations on the items of activity in regions.

Other negative changes of situation in the regions of the issuer’s activity, which can influence negatively on its activity and economic condition, are not forecasted in the nearest time.



The risks connected with possible military conflicts, introduction of state of emergency and strikes in the country and regions in which the issuer is registered as the tax bearer and/or carries out primary activity.

The probability of military conflicts and introductions of state of emergency in the country and in regions of presence of the issuer is insignificant. In case of occurrence of possible military conflicts, the issuer bears risks of its fixed assets decommissioning.



The risks connected with geographical features of the country and region, in which the issuer is registered as the tax bearer and/or carries out primary activity, including the raised danger of acts of nature, the possible interruption of transport communication due to remoteness and/or inaccessibility, etc.

Geographic features of the region, in which the issuer performs its activity, suppose risk of natural disasters within the autumn and winter period (AWP). These risks are valued by the Company as medium. The issuer implements complex of measures on preparing of the grid complex for autumn and winter period, each branch of the issuer is certified for readiness to AWP. At the constant basis works on reduction of time period, which is necessary for operative rectification of consequences of natural disasters within autumn and winter period, are carried out.





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Reserves of future expenses and valuation reserves

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