Table 1. Dynamics of distribution of the world economy by region

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Table 1.
Dynamics of distribution of the world economy by region
Countries
Years
America
Europe
China
India
Rest of
Asia
Rest of the
world
2020 y.
20%
18%
18%
8%
10%
26%
2040 y.
15%
12%
24%
15%
11%
23%
In table 1. you can see the forecast dynamics of the distribution of the world economy by
region and country. The global economy is estimated to more than double by 2040 compared to 2020,
with the combined weight of China and India in the global economy increasing significantly.
The energy structure changes in different ways. Meeting the growth in global energy demand
is supported by a wide variety of resources. Fossil fuels, according to a study by the International
Energy Agency, will retain their dominant position in global consumption of primary fuel and energy
resources until 2050.
Today, in the production of thermal and electrical energy, oil is being actively replaced by
cheaper coal (especially in developing countries) and more environmentally friendly natural gas, as
well as renewable energy sources (RES) with zero greenhouse gas emissions. Important ways to
reduce oil consumption are increasing the efficiency of using petroleum products in transport, as well
as replacing vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) with electric vehicles. If today electric
vehicles are inferior in cost to internal combustion engines by 20-30%, then, according to all
forecasts, parity will be achieved here by 2025.
According to the World Energy Congress, proven reserves of fossil fuels in the world amount
to 820 billion tons in terms of oil equivalent and are distributed as follows (billion toe): coal - 560,
oil - 140, gas - 120, for Europe, respectively: 59.51 and 5.
The fastest reductions in energy intensity are expected to be achieved in China and India, at
3% per annum on average between 2020 and 2040. In other regions this reduction will typically be
between 1% and 2% per year. While the global average is projected at 2.2% per annum.
The most obvious solution to reducing greenhouse gases is to increase the share of low-
pollution energy substitutes, which include renewable energy sources, as well as nuclear energy and
natural gas. However, some countries will also continue to rely on fuels such as coal, while improving
energy conversion efficiency and introducing modern pollution management.
The global energy community recognizes the challenges posed by climate change and agrees
on the need to reduce CO2 emissions through the so-called “energy transition”. A large number of
countries support the Paris Agreement, including the EU and China, and measures are being taken
around the world to keep the increase in average ambient temperature below 1.5C. The Paris
Agreement is a document adopted within the framework of the UN Convention on Climate Change,
regulating measures to reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 2020.
It is worth noting that hydrocarbons will still remain the main source of energy in the next
three decades. Renewables are set to play a longer-term role in electricity generation as a result of
government support and lower costs, especially for wind and solar power. The reasons for the slowing
development of RES are the high cost and variability of energy production, the slow development

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and unavailability of storage systems, certain difficulties in long-distance transmission of electricity,
as well as problems caused by climate change, or more precisely the conditions for the formation of
RES).
There are three dominant centers of global oil consumption in the world: North America,
Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. The leading industrialized countries - the USA, the EU
and Japan - account for 50% of global oil consumption. As shown in table 2. Oil will remain the
largest source of the world's energy mix during the forecast period, with a share of about 27% in
2040, higher than gas and coal.

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