13.6.4. Elastiklik koeffitsiyentlari
Elastik so‘zi grekcha «elastikos» so‘zidan olingan bo‘lib, egiluvchanlik, qayishqoqlik, ohista o‘zgaruvchanlik degan lug‘aviy ma’noga ega. Statistikada bu atama o‘zaro aloqador hodisalar dinamikasida namoyon bo‘ladigan biri ikkinchisining o‘zgarishiga nisbatan egiluvchanligi, qayishqoqligi mazmunida qo‘llanadi. Elastiklik koeffitsiyentlari o‘zaro bog‘langan hodisalardan biri ikkinchisining o‘zgarishiga nisbatan sezgirlik qobiliyatini aniqlaydi. Ular birinchi hodisa bir foizga o‘zgarganda ikkinchisi qancha foizga o‘zgarishini ko‘rsatadi, odatda natijaviy hodisa qo‘shimcha o‘sish suratini u bilan bog‘lanishda qaralayotgan ikkinchi hodisa (umumiy resurs, omil belgi) qo‘shimcha o‘sish suratiga bo‘lishdan hosil bo‘ladi. Bunday ko‘rsatkichlarga misol qilib quyidagi muhim makroiqtisodiy koeffitsiyentlarni ko‘rsatish mumkin:
1. To‘plama talabning iste’mol narxlariga nisbatan elastik koeffitsiyenti iste’mol narxlari bir foizga o‘zgarishi natijasida to‘plama talab qancha foizga o‘zgarishi mumkinligini ko‘rsatadi. Masalan, 2004 yilda 2003 yilga nisbatan O‘zbekistonda iste’mol baholari 1,6% yalpi milliy daromad taqqoslama narxlarda 7,7% ko‘paygan. Demak, iste’mol narxlarining 1% o‘zgarishiga real pirovard iste’mol (taqqoslama narxlarda) 0,88% (1,4:1,6) va milliy daromad 4,8% (7,7*100/1,6) oshishi to‘g‘ri keladi.
2. To‘plama taklifning ishlab chiqaruvchilar narxlariga nisbatan elastiklik koeffitsiyenti ishlab chiqaruvchilar narxlari bir foizga o‘zgarishi bilan yalpi ichki mahsulot qancha foizga o‘zgarishini aniqlaydi. Masalan, 2004 yilda O‘zbekistonda sanoat mahsulotlarini ishlab chiqaruvchilar narxlari 2003 yilga nisbatan 29,6%, yalpi ichki mahsulot (taqqoslama narxlarda) 7,7% shu jumladan sanoatda 8,9 % ko‘paygan. Demak, ishlab chiqaruvchilar narxlarining 1% ortishi bilan birga real ichki mahsulot 0,20%ga (4:60,8), shu jumladan sanoat qo‘shilgan qiymat 0,03%ga ko‘payishi yuz bergan. Demak, ishlab chiqaruvchilar narxlariga nisbatan real ichki mahsulot elastik emas.
3. Import uchun talabning daromadga nisbatan elastiklik koeffitsiyenti import qo‘shimcha o‘sish suratini milliy daromad qo‘shimcha o‘sish suratiga nisbatidan vujudga keladi:
Demak, import uchun talabning daromadga nisbatan elastiklik koeffitsiyentini chegaraviy importga moyillik koeffitsiyentini o‘tgan davr o‘rtacha moyillik koeffitsiyentiga bo‘lish yo‘li bilan ham aniqlash mumkin. Masalan, 2004 yilda 2003 yilga nisbatan O‘zbekistonda import –13,3%, yalpi milliy daromad (AQSh dollarida) esa –17,6% kamaygan. Bundan import uchun talabning daromadga nisbatan elastikligi  ya’ni import 1%ga kamayishi milliy daromadning 0,76%ga kamayishi bilan birgalikda yuz bergan.
4. Soliqlarning o‘z asoslariga nisbatan elastiklik koeffitsiyenti soliqlar o‘z asoslari o‘zgarishiga nisbatan sezuvchanlik qobiliyatini o‘lchaydi. Ular soliqqa tortish asosi 1% o‘zgarganda davlat budjetining soliqlardan olgan daromadlari qancha foizga o‘zgarishini ko‘rsatadi.
Asosiy tushuncha va atamalar
Balans, mikroiqtisodiy balanslar, makroiqtisodiy balanslar, moddiy balanslar, mehnat balanslari, demografik balanslar, tabiiy resurslar balansi, moliyaviy balanslar, statik balans, dinamik balans, tarmoqlararo balans, hududlararo balans, shaxmat balans, aktiv va passivlar balansi, mehnat resurslari balansi, bandlik va ishsizlik ko‘rsatkichlari, milliy hisoblamalar tizimi (MHT), BMTning birinchi standart MHT-53, BMTning ikkinchi standart MHT-68, BMTning uchinchi standart MHT-93, birinchi Ovropa integrallashtirilgan iqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlar tizimi – OIIKT-69., ikkinchi – OIIKT-95, iqtisodiy operatsiyalar va oqimlar, rezidentlik.
Qisqacha xulosalar
Umumiy holda balans deganda tomonlarni tenglashtirish, bir-biriga muvofiqlashtirish, ixtiloflarni yo‘qotib muvozanat barqaror holga keltirish tushuniladi.
Milliy iqtisodiyotda hodisalar o‘rtasidagi zohiriy o‘zaro bog‘lanishlar ko‘pincha additiv holda kechadi. Ular bir tarafdan, birin-ketin sodir bo‘lib bir-biriga qo‘shilib, ustma-ust qatlanib, kattalashib boradi, ikkinchi tomondan esa, asta-sekin bir-biridanajralib, ishlatilib, qatlamlar ko‘chib, silliqlashib umumiy natija kichiklashib boradi.
Iqtisodiy tizimda kuzatiladigan bunday qarama-qarshi say-harakatlar, o‘zgarishlar ularni doimo o‘zaro muvofiqlashtirib turishni, yagona muvozanat holatga keltirishni talab qiladi. Iqtisodiy balanslar ana shunday maqsad uchun xizmat qiladi.
Shunday qilib, statistikada balans – bu o‘zaro bog‘langan va bir-birini taqozo etuvchi hisoblashlar va ko‘rsatkichlar tizimidir.
Balans usuli mikroiqtisodiy darajada ham, makroiqtisodiy miqyosda ham keng qo‘llanadi. Mikroiqtisodiy balanslar yordamida ho‘jalik yurituvchi subyektlar faoliyatining turli tomonlari orasidagi bog‘lanish va mutanosibliklar tahlil qilinadi. Korxona va tashkilotlarning buxgalteriya hisobida qo‘llanadigan barcha hisoblama (schet)lar balans usuliga tayanadi.
Balans usuli makroiqtisodiy statistikada alohida o‘rin egallaydi. Uning yordamida milliy iqtisodiyot taraqqiyotining turli jihatlari, jumladan, tarmoqlar va sektorlar rivojlanishidagi proporsiyalar, ishlab chiqarish, iste’mol va jamg‘arish orasidagi o‘zaro nisbatlar, milliy boylik shakllanishi va undan foydalanish, mehnat va moliyaviy resurslardan foydalanish, mintaqaviy va hududiy iqtisodiy aloqalar, tashqi iqtisodiy aloqalar o‘rganiladi.
Iqtisodiy balanslar turli-tumandir. Ularni tasniflash masalasiga har xil jihatdan yondashish mumkin. Hodisalarni tasniflash holatiga qarab ular dinamik va statik balanslarga, ularni mohiyati va xarakteriga asosan demografik, tabiiy resurslar, moddiy, moliyaviy va mehnat balanslariga, tuzilish miqyosiga binoan makro va mikro balanslarga, tuzilish vaqtiga qarab joriy yillik balanslarga, shakliga qarab esa satrli-jadval balanslar va shaxmat-balanslarga ajraladi.
Makroiqtisodiy balanslar milliy hisoblamalar tizimining tayanch usulidir. Milliy hisobchilik makroiqtisodiyot darajasida kechadigan takror ishlab chiqarish jarayonining turli jihatlarini bir butunlikda va uzviy bog‘lanishda maxsus ko‘rsatkichlar yordamida tasvirlaydi. Unda milliy mahsulot va milliy daromadni yaratish, taqsimlash, qayta taqsimlash, iste’mol va jamg‘arish jarayonlari batafsil o‘z ifodasini topadi. Bu tizim makroiqtisodiy tahlil va istiqbolni belgilash uchun, makroiqtisodiy siyosatni ishlab chiqish va izchil amalga oshirish uchun muhim qurol bo‘lib xizmat qiladi.
MHT integrallashtirilgan makroiqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlar tizimidir. Hisoblamalar bir-biri bilan tegishli ko‘rsatkichlar yordamida bog‘lanibgina qolmasdan, balki sektorlar bo‘yicha ham izchil bog‘lanishga ega. Bu esa iqtisodiy tahlilni pog‘anama-pog‘ana vertikal (tikka) va gorizontal (tekislikda) yo‘nalishida va ularni izchil birikmasida amalga oshirish imkonini beradi.
Nazorat va mustaqil ishlash uchun savol va topshiriqlar
Balans so‘zi nimani anglatadi?
Statistikada balans usuli deganda nimani tushunasiz?
Balans usuli yordamida qanday voqeliklar va o‘zaro bog‘lanishlar aniqlanadi?
Iqtisodiy balanslarning qanday turlarini bilasiz?
Dinamik balans nima va u qachon tuziladi? Statik balans-chi?
O‘rganilayotgan hodisalar mohiyati va xarakteriga qarab balanslar qanday turlarga bo‘linadi?
O‘zbekiston aholisining yoshi-jinsi va yashash joyi bo‘yicha 1 yanvar 2002 yil holatida taqsimoti qanday balans turiga misol bo‘ladi? Bu balansni dinamik shaklida tuza olasizmi?
O‘zbekiston faol aholisining iqtisodiy bandligi balansi qanday balans turiga misol bo‘la oladi? Bu balans nimalarni tasvirlaydi?
Tuzish miqyosiga qarab iqtisodiy balanslar qanday turlarga bo‘linadi? Har bir tur uchun misol keltiring!
Bozor iqtisodiyoti sharoitida O‘zbekiston mehnat resurslari balansini tuzish kerak-mi? O‘z fikringizni izohlab bering.
Sizga yashab turgan viloyatingiz mehnat resurslari balansini tuzish va tahlil qilish topshirilgan. Buning uchun qanday ma’lumotlarni to‘playsiz va ko‘rsatkichlarni hisoblaysiz?
Aksioner jamiyat aktiv va passivlari balansi qanday balans turiga misol bo‘ladi va qay tartibda tuziladi?
Universitetni bitirganingizdan so‘ng yirik korporatsiya rahbari Sizni ishga olish niyatida korporatsiya moliyaviy holatini tahlil qilib berishingizni iltimos qilgan. Buning uchun qanday ma’lumotlarni to‘playsiz, balanslar tuzasiz va ko‘rsatkichlar hisoblaysiz?
Milliy hisobchilik yoki Milliy Hisoblamalar Tizimi (MHT) nima? U qanday maqsadlarni ko‘zlaydi?
MHT qanday tushuncha va kategoriyaga asoslanadi?
Asosiy hisoblamalar qanday turlarga tasniflanadi?
Asosiy adabiyotlar
Башкатов Б.И. Национальное счетоводство. 3-е изд. – М.: Финансы и статистика, 2005, 606 с.
Башкатов Б.И. Практикум по национальному счетоводству. – М.: Финансы и статистика, 2004, 320 с.
Махмудов Б.М. Миллий Ҳисобчилик асослари. Ўқув қўлланма. – Т.: Академия, 2003.
Соатов Н.М. Статистика. Дарслик. – Т.: Тиббиёт нашриёти, 2003, 629 – 724-б.
Петер фон де Липпе. Экономическая статистика. Перев. с нем. Издат.: Федеральное статистическое управление Германии, Йена, 1995, 629 б.
Экономическая статистика. Учебник. Под.ред. Ю.Н.Иванова. -М.: Инфра, 1998, 480 б.
Ё.Абдуллаев. Макроиқтисодий статистика. -Т.: Мећнат, 1998.
ADABIYOTLAR
Ўзбекистон Республикаси “Давлат статисатикаси ҳақида”ги қонуни, ноябр 2002 йил.
“Давлат статистика ҳисоботини тақдим этиш тартибини бузганлик учун жавобгарлик ҳақида” Ўзбекистон Республикаси вазирлир Маҳкамасининг Қарори.
“Ўзбекистон Республикаси Давлат статистика қўмитаси фаолиятини ташкил этиш ҳақида”ги Ўзбекистон Республикаси Вазирлар Маҳкамасининг 8 январ 2003 йил 8 – сонли Қарори.
Ўзбекистон Республикаси Давлат статистика Қўмитаси ҳақида Низом. 8 январ 2003 йил 8-сонли Вазирлар Маҳкамасининг Қарори билан тасдиқланган.
Каримов И.А. Иқтисодиётни эркинлаштириш ва ислоҳотларни чуқурлаштириш энг муҳим вазифамиз. Вазирлар Маҳкамасидаги маърузаси. -Т., 15.02.2000.
Каримов И.А. Иқтисодий ривожланиш ва иқтисодий ислоҳотларни чуқурлаштириш. Халқ сўзи. 2002 йил, 25 январ.
Каримов И.А. Эришилган ютуқларни мустаҳкамлаб, янги марралар сари изчил ҳаракат қилишимиз лозим. “Халқ сўзи” газетаси, 2006 йил 11 феврал.
Каримов И.А. Бизнинг бош мақсадимиз - жамиятни демократлаштириш ва янгилаш, мамлакатни модернизация ва ислоҳ этишдир. - Тошкент. Ўзбекистон, 2005. 153 б.
И.И. Елисеева Обшая теория статистики. 5-е изд. М.: Финансы и статистика, 2005
Ефимова Н.В. Практикум по общей теории статистики. 2-е изд. М: Финансы и статистика. 2006.
Н.М. Соатов, Тиллаходжаев Бозор жаёнлари индекс таҳлили. -Т.:”Иқтисодиёт”, 2005, 248б.
Башкатов О.Э. и др. Общая теория статистики. 5-е изд. -М.: Финансы и статистика, 2006, 105с.
Плис А.И. Практикум по прикладной статистике в среде SPSS. -М.: Финансы и статистика, 2004, 189с.
Хартли Алик Статистика. пер с англ.; под ред О.Э.Башиной, -М.: Финансы и статистика, 2004, 150с.
Н.М.Соатов. Статистика. -Т.: Тиббиёт нашриёти, 2003 йил, 744 б..
Абдуллаев Ё. Статистика назарияси. –Т.: Ўқитувчи, 2002 йил, 565 б.
Дж.Эдни Юл, М.Дж.Кендэл. Теория статистики. М.: Госстатиздат, 1960, 120-200-бетлар.
О.Ланге, А.Банасиньский. Теория статистики. перв.с польск. М.: Статистика, 1971, 125-155 бетлар.
Пакет прикладных программ: Exell, Statistiks, Graphics, Microekonomics.
ww.mesi.ru
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Contents
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Introductions
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| I-part Descriptive statistics | |
1-chapter The Subject and a method of statistics
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Statistics: What is it?
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The subject of statistics
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Methodology of statistics
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Economic statistics
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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2-chapter Methodology of statistical observation
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2.1 Modern state statistics of Republic of Uzbekistan and the international statistics
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2.2 Essence of statistical and the observation basic requirements showed to it. Object and the subject of observation
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2.3 Methodology of preparation of statistical
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2.4 Types of statistical observation
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The reporting, special - organized observation, business - inspections and census
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Mistakes of statistical observation and ways of their revealing
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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3-chapter The Parameters of statistics
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3.1 Concepts and values of statistics
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3.2 Types and classifications of statistics
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3.3 Absolute and relative sizes
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3.4 Classification of relative parameters
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3.5 Interrelation between relative sizes
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3.6The basic concepts and terms
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3.7 Brief conclusions
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3.8 Questions and tasks for independent work
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3.9 The literature
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4-chapter Presentation of the statistical data: tables and diagrams
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4.1 Statistical tables
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4.2 Types and rules of construction of tables
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4.3 Concepts about diagrams, their role and values in statistics
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4.4 Types and basic elements of diagrams
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4.5 Linear and plane diagrams
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4.6 Sector diagrams
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4.7 Square and circular diagrams
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4.8 Figured diagrams
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4.9 Cartograms and cartodiagrams
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4.10 The basic concepts and terms
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4.11 Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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2-part Analytical statistics
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5-chapter Methodology of statistical classification and grouping
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Essence and values of statistical classification
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Statistical grouping
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Types of groupings
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Simple and combinational grouping
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Multidimensional grouping
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Secondary grouping
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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5.10 Questions and tasks for independent work
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5.11 The literature
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6- chapter Distribution and their descriptive parameters
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Member of population its attributes
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Variational series and their types
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Graphic images of variational series
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Cumulative distribution
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Curves distribution
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Descriptive parameters variational series
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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7- chapter Average and structural average indices
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Essence and values of average in statistics
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Forms of average and the order of their calculation
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Properties of mean arithmetic
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Calculation by means arithmetic a way of the moments
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Application means arithmetic in the economic analysis
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Mean geometric
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Calculation by means geometric for the characteristic of average relative changes
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Definition of a mean geometrical level on the basis of relative changes
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Mathematical properties of mean geometric
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Mean harmonic
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Mean quadratic and cubic
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Mean sedate
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Structural means parameters
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Mode
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Median
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Quintiles
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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8 - chapter Parameters of a variation
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8.1 Essence of a variation and necessity of its changes
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Range as measure dispersion
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Dispersion and root-mean square deviation
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Properties of dispersions
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The simplified ways of calculation of a dispersion
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Rules of addition of dispersions and applications in the analysis of the market phenomena
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Mean deviation
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Quartile deviation
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Semi- interquartile range
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Coefficient of variation
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Dispersion geometrical
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Measures of asymmetry
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Measures of kurtosis
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Optimum limits parameters of a variation: measures of concentration, specialization and monopolization
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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9-chapter Sampling
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9.1 The general concepts about sampling
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9.2 Representation of sample and ways of its maintenance
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Definition of an error of sampling
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Definition of necessary number of sample
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Distribution of results of sample on general universes (estimation from samples)
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Bases of statistical check of hypotheses
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Estimation of a hypothesis about the law of distribution
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Estimation of a hypothesis about average
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The analysis of variance
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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10-chapter Correlation and regression the analysis
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10.1 Concept about interrelations and their types
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10.2 Tasks regressive and correlation analysis and its stages
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10.3 Decisions of the equation rectilinear regress and linear correlation coefficient on the basis of the initial data
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10.4 Ranks correlation coefficient
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10.5 The decision of the equation rectilinear pair regressive and correlation coefficient on a basis with a grouping data. Correlation tables
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10.6 The equations curvilinear pair regressive and a coefficient index of correlation
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10.7 Estimation and the analysis of parameters of a steam room regression
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10.8 Multiple correlations. A choice of essential and significant factors
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10.9 Multiple regression equation
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10.10 Coefficient of multiple of partial correlation
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Estimation and analyses parameters of equation of multiple regression
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Decomposition of the generalized result of pair and multiple correlation under the factor
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Correlation and regression models in the economic analysis and forecasting
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The factorial analysis and method of the main components
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Methods of measurement of connection between attributive attributes (no parametrical correlation)
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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11-chapter Methods of statistical studying of dynamics
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Dynamics series their compound elements and types
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Measures of the analysis of dynamics series’s
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Methods of calculation of mean indices of dynamics
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Methods of revealing trend
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Ways of revealing of the century (long-term) tendency of development (trend)
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Methods of studying of periodic or cyclic fluctuations
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Methods of studying of seasonal fluctuations
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Definition of autocorrelation in the ranks of dynamics
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Estimation of a log in the ranks of dynamics
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Changes of correlation of numbers (lines) of dynamics
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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12-chapter Indexes
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Semantic values of a word an index and its applications
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The general concept about indexes (essence, value and functions)
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Types and classification of indexes
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Individual indexes
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Individual indexes: chain, from a constant and variable base of comparison
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Properties of individual indexes
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Simple (unweighed) average indexes
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Average indexes weighed
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Aggregative indexes with basic weights. Laspeires Indexes
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Aggregative indexes with the current weights. Paasches Indexes
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The comparative analysis of Laspeires and Paasches Indexes
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Other forms of aggregative indexes
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Grouping indexes and their application in the analysis of parameters of efficiency of economy
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The interconnected indexes
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Indexes of an industrial product
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Indexes real national product and it deflator
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Indexes of consumer prices
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Price indexes of manufacturers
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Price indexes of agricultural production
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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13- chapter Statistical balances
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Essence and value of a balance method in statistics
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Types and classification of statistical balances
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Balances of work (labour)
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The general concept about national accounting
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Concepts and categories of system of national accounts
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Kinds and classification of accounts
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The basic productive and analytical parameters of system of the national accounts
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The basic concepts and terms
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Brief conclusions
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Questions and tasks for independent work
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The literature
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LITERATURE
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