479
comprehensive assessment of industrial production growth reserves is carried out according to the
following algorithm.
At the first stage of the algorithm, the value of the internal reserves of production growth of
industrial enterprises is estimated. They are identified in the process
of economic analysis of
production and economic activities. Such an analysis provides for a systematic study of all the
elements and conditions of production in their interconnection, the results of which provide a
quantitative assessment of the reserves of production growth of industrial enterprises.
The first three blocks of the algorithm make it possible to assess the possibility
of increasing the
degree of use of resources and production factors. On this basis, it is possible to obtain an estimate of
the size of the resource and factor potential of production growth.
The calculation formula is as follows:
Rvnutr. = Bmax. - Wfact. (1)
Where Rvnutr. - Reserves for the growth of industrial production due to internal factors and resources;
Vmax. - The maximum possible annual output of commercial industrial products and services; Wfact.
- The actual annual output of commercial industrial products and services;
From formula (1) it can be seen that the assessment of the reserves for the growth of production of
industrial enterprises, determined by internal factors and resources, is
reduced to determining the
maximum possible output of industrial products and services.
At the second stage of the algorithm, the amount of production growth reserves determined
by external factors is estimated. Its peculiarity lies in the difficulty of taking into account many
interrelated factors of a heterogeneous nature. We propose to assess the reserves of production
growth, determined by external factors, as an opportunity to reduce the balance of finished products
in the warehouses of industrial enterprises. This indicator, although it does not fully take into account
the action of all heterogeneous factors of the external environment, nevertheless,
gives a generalized
assessment of the possibility of growth in sales of previously produced products.
This indicator, although it does not fully take into account the action of all heterogeneous
factors of the external environment, nevertheless, gives a generalized assessment of the possibility of
growth in sales of previously produced products. At the third stage of the algorithm, an aggregate
assessment of the reserves of production growth of industrial enterprises is made, due to the action of
factors of both production and sales of products.
The calculation is proposed to be carried out according to the formula (2):
Rsov. = Int. + Rout. (2)
Where Pvnesh. - Reserves for the growth of production of industrial enterprises, determined
by external factors (balances of finished products).
However, due to the limited statistics for Uzbekistan, this methodology has been modified and
is based primarily on the method of comparing indicators for Uzbekistan with reference countries.
For the whole group of selected reference countries and Uzbekistan, the average value and maximum
value for the indicator will be calculated.
Table1.
Medium and long-term reserves for the growth of gross industrial output,
taking into account
innovative factors. (Billion soums)
Medium-term
reserve
(2018-2023)
Long-term
reserve
(2024-2031)
Average annual growth, %
20
10
Gross production volume
203977,3
549424,0
Internal reserve
47309,5
148151,6
External reserve
156667,8
401272,4
At
their own expense
480
Unsold products
18748,5
37497,0
R&D costs
413954,5
972556,8
Number of researchers
37300,5
193763,4
Source: authors' calculations.
Thus, as can be seen from the table, with additional activation
of the reserves for the
development of innovative factors, the potential growth of industrial production in the medium term
can be 3 times with an annual growth rate of 20% in 2018-2023. In the long term, potential growth
could be 7 times the current level, with an annual growth rate of 10% in the period 2024-2031. These
results show how great the potential for the introduction and development of innovations in industry
is and how insignificant is the level of its development and contribution to the growth of industrial
production today. From this, we can conclude that the activation of innovative factors is the most
difficult, but the most promising way to increase industrial production.
