“Yashil iqtisodiyot sari: nazariy va amaliy yondashuvlar tahlili”
mavzusidagi xalqaro ilmiy-amaliy anjuman
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defJicit increased from 1.4 percent of GDP in the first half of 2022 to 6.3 percent in
the first half of 2023.
Growth rates of 3.8% in agriculture and 5.6% in industry
offset declines of 4.8% in construction and 6.4% in services. Between January and
August 2023, the Uzbek sum depreciated by 6.9% against the US dollar, partly due
to the fall of the Russian ruble. As of the end of June 2023, Uzbekistan's gold and
foreign exchange reserves decreased by $2 billion, reaching $33.7 billion. These
resources were sufficient to cover the cost of imports for a certain period. The fiscal
deficit widened from 4.1% of GDP in the first half of 2023 to 5.7% of GDP in the
first half of 2023 due to higher spending and lower-than-expected consumption tax
revenues. According to calculations by the World Bank, economic growth in
Uzbekistan reached 5.5 percent in 2023. Consumption growth slowed in 2023 due
to a decline in remittances from Russia. As remittances fell, the country's current
account deficit continued to widen. In 2023, the budget deficit increased to 5% due
to high energy costs, high public sector salaries, education costs, pensions and
benefits, as well as low budget revenues. This was due to reduced tax incentives for
state-owned enterprises, lower costs of energy subsidies, and increased budget
revenues from the privatization of state assets. The government is expected to
comply with external borrowing limits.
Meanwhile, government debt was expected to rise to 36 percent of GDP in
2023, with the figure expected to reach 36.6 percent in 2024. Despite the expansion
of government social protection programs, a slowdown in remittances and private
consumption growth could limit expected progress in poverty reduction in
Uzbekistan. By the end of 2023, 127.5 thousand families in Uzbekistan are lifted out
of poverty. The country's poverty rate has dropped from 17% in 2021 to 14% in
2022. At the end of last year, the poverty level in the country decreased by 3.1
percent to 11 percent, while a decrease in poverty was recorded in all regions. As of
2023, the labor force is 19,724,900 people. This is 207.4 thousand people or 1.1%
higher than in 2022. Although the unemployment rate stood at 6.8% at the end of
2023, it decreased by 2.1% compared to the corresponding period in 2022 and by
2.8% compared to the corresponding period in 2021.
In addition, the amount of minimum consumer spending calculated for 2024,
taking into account the inflation rate, is expected to be 621 thousand sums. In 2023,
this figure amounted to 568 thousand sums.
Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan reported that at the end of 2023, inflation was
8.77 percent. In 2022 inflation was 12.3%, and we see that this figure dropped
significantly last year. At the same time, the inflation rate in 2021 and 2020 was
9.98% and 11.1%, respectily. Economist Otabek Bakirov writes that this is the
lowest inflation recorded since 2016.
